Budget 2008: What to expect

Tuesday, 11 March 2008 12:00

Alistair Darling will step up to the Dispatch Box at 12:30 tomorrow to deliver his first Budget and expectations are he will try to wrap up any proposals in a green blanket.

The consensus among the experts is not much will change tomorrow - as the government has its hands tied as the economy slows - so the chancellor will try to squeeze little tax hikes here and there across the economy and perhaps hand out a little on the side.

In a slowing economy it is usual practice - as seen in the US - for the government to cut a few taxes to boost consumer spending and the burden on business. Also a dose of interest rate cutting - out of the hands of Mr Darling - is also expected.

However, major cut cuts seem to be off the cards as the government faces a budget deficit of £38bn and a higher Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement (PSNBR).

"Mr Darling faces a difficult time on Wednesday," said Howard Archer, chief Uk economist at analysts Global Insight.

"He stated recently he will use March's budget to support growth, but the worrying state of the public finances suggest he has no scope to take meaningful stimulative fiscal measures."

Speculation is rife National Insurance contributions could be increased for high earners and drivers of more polluting cars could also face higher taxes.

Pressure to stop tax rises on petrol is expected to be ignored, but cigarette and alcohol taxes seem destined to rise.

In property, there is hope the chancellor will raise capital gains tax thresholds, while changes or delays to the new capital gains tax system could be brought in, but Mr Darling will be reticent to introduce a further volte face on this issue.

A similar change of tack for non-doms could also be brought in.

For the economy, growth predictions - of core importance as the government calculates how much tax will be brought in - are expected to be cut.

The investment sector could see some changes, but on the whole a short budget is expected.

Mark Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, explained very little should be on the horizon.

"I wouldn't expect anything at all.. the chancellor's got no money to give away anyway," he said.

"Most of the Budget is fairly neutral to making people worse off because the government needs more and more money all the time."

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