UK economy remains fixed in recession

Friday, 23 October 2009 09:49

The UK economy has maintained its decline - dropping 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of the year.

A return to growth was widely expected and the scale of the fall in output surprised many.

The economy has contracted 5.2 per cent over the last 12 months, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show and is 5.9 per cent smaller since the start of the recession.

The recession has now lasted for a year and a half - the longest since recorded started in 1955.

All areas of the economy saw downturn - most noted in mining and services.

Alan Tomlinson, at insolvency practitioners, Tomlinsons, said: "The latest drop in GDP may have surprised the City but it comes as no surprise to the people and businesses on the front line where the battle is still as bloody as ever.

"For months, we have been saying that there are no material signs yet of any pick-up in confidence or activity and that the business climate remains extremely hostile."

GDP is now expected to start rising in the final quarter of 2009 - as spending is brought forward before the increase in VAT and the end of the car scrappage scheme - but 2010 is not set to see a major bounce back.

"Serious economic and financial obstacles to significant, sustainable growth remain, and we suspect that economic activity will be muted and prone to relapses for some considerable time to come," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight.

"This could occur, for example, early in 2010 as VAT rises back up from 15 per cent to 17.5 per cent and the car scrappage scheme ends."

He added high and rising unemployment, the need for consumers and businesses to cut back debts, and ongoing tight credit conditions were "particularly worrisome for growth prospects", along with the prospect of tax increases and public spending cuts.

"It looks increasingly questionable whether GDP growth can even reach 1.0 per cent in 2010 as it is coming from a weaker base," Dr Archer said.

TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said: "This is now the longest recession in modern economic history.

"Even the co-ordinated worldwide stimulus has not been able to halt the damage done by the financial crash."

He added the effects of the recession will be felt for some time even after figures show the UK climbs out of recession.

"These worse than expected figures should head off the growing signs of complacency," Mr Barber said.

"The economy is still extremely fragile. Any halt in economic stimulus - or even worse, cuts in spending in a premature effort to close the deficit - could easily send us into another downwards spiral.

"Fighting unemployment - particularly among the young - must be national priority number one."

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