UK recession deeper than first thought
The Office for National Statistics has announced that GDP fell by 0.3 per cent rather than 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.
The ONS’s second estimate includes actual March data and information from the expenditure side of the economy.
The change is because output in the construction sector fell by 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter rather than by three per cent that was in the preliminary estimate.
The vital services sector - which accounts for 70 per cent of the UK economy - grew by just 0.1 per cent in the quarter and the manufacturing sector was flat.
GDP growth was also hindered by a widening ot the trade deficit as UK businesses export markets shrank, partly due to the lack of demand from the eurozone.
There is one glimmer of hope though. Part of the fall in GDP in the last two quarters is because UK companies are running down their stocks. This could be a temporary blip and may be reversed in the next two quarters.
Business investment rose by 3.6 per cent in the quarter, more good news, as companies prepare to invest some of the cash hoarded on the future of their firms.
However, the euro debt crisis still hangs over the UK economy and provides the greatest risk to an uplift in growth.
The revision of the first quarter GDP figures is a blow to the government and means that not only is it confirmed that the UK has entered a double-dip recession, it means that in the 12 months to March 2012 the UK economy contracted by 0.1 per cent.
Commenting on the figures, Dr Howar Archer, Chief UK & European Economist at IHS Global said: "Very disappointing. Not only did the Office for National Statistics confirm that the UK moved back into recession in the first quarter, but the contraction in GDP was revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter thereby matching the drop in the fourth quarter of 2011. Furthermore, this meant that GDP was down 0.1% year-on-year."
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