US heads to recession - Thursday, 30 Oct 2008

Today it was confirmed the US was heading to recession for the first time since 2001.

The contraction of 0.3 per cent was widely expected and few informed eyebrows were raised - unlike the UK's 0.5 per cent drop in GDP.

But still there are people out there trying to flog US investments - claiming the bottom is near and equities are reasonably priced.

I don't want to guess the bottom of market - as whatever I say will see me wrong - but I can't help think of those in 1930 and 1931 who said shares were at rock bottom prices only for Wall Street to drop further and further.

Presumably we are not heading into such a disabling global depression, but I still have ringing in my ears experts who said 12, 6 and 3 months ago that banks were now a good price and couldn't drop anymore.

One thing I have learnt from the crisis is history repeats itself.

Perhaps all the toxicity is now out the system - or all existing filth is priced into share values - but only a fool would hang their reputation on the worst being over.

Yes, share prices are reasonably priced and in four years time they will be higher, but you willing to bet over the next few months a high rate building society savings account won't offer better returns. I do not claim to know, but I do claim to be very cautious.

Fortune favours the brave and the well informed - it is hard to be either in the current markets.

However, there is one thing worth looking at. Traditionally - and I have no figures to hand sitting on the train as I am - US markets have responded very well to new presidents.

Amid all the news about Johnathan Ross and Russell Brand, I have heard there is an election happening in the US. A new face - be it Obama or McCain - will be welcomed.

I still have three more stops - I think that is enough and I can return to the Ascent of Money.

Daniel Barnes