Budget 2009: What to expect...

Friday, 17 April 2009 06:26

The Budget this year will leave the chancellor with little room to manoeuvre, but with a great many demands to aid the UK through the recession.

How the chancellor of the exchequer will tax and spend on Budget Day, April 22nd, will be closely monitored.

Hopes are for tax cuts to prompt greater spending - targeted to those who need them most - as well as help for those affected by interest rate cuts.

However, middle England and higher earners could find tax rises coming out of Darling's red box.

Myfinances.co.uk takes you through what to expect.

Savers

The fall in base rates from five per cent to the current level of 0.5 per cent over half a year has hit the millions of people relying on savings to boost their income.

The chancellor could well increase the ISA limit to as high as £10,000 - putting up the amount that can be saved or investment tax-free.

Some commentators are calling for basic rate payers to avoid paying income tax on all savings - no matter how large or small.

Direct taxes

The chancellor is being pushed for some greater stimulus for the economy - and this could come from tax cuts - particularly those aimed at lower earners.

Some commentators are even calling for all workers on minimum wage to not to pay income tax - with the rationale being that lower income Britons are more likely to spend and not save any handout.

Pensioners could also see their personal allowances - the amount of income they can have without paying tax - increased.

Meanwhile tax increases for higher earners - announced in the pre-Budget report last November - could be brought forward.

Economy

One of the dramas of the Budget will be the chancellor's forecast for economic growth - important as it is on this he can gauge how well tax receipts will be and so how much he can spend.

Mr Darling has already admitted the Treasury has been over-optimistic on previous forecasts.

Forecasts for government borrowing will also come under the microscope.

Accountants Grant Thornton estimate borrowing could increase to an all-time high of £160 billion for 2009-10 and £170 billion for 2010-11, - £42 billion and £64 billion more than forecast six months ago.

This equates to a debt of £50,000 per household.

But there is hope the chancellor will use to Budget to boost the economy.

However, his hands may well be tied - with the governor of the Bank of England already warning about borrowing more to boost the economy.

The chancellor may have to rest on his current efforts and leave the economy to be healed by the Bank's low interest rates and quantitative easing - even though the long-term damaging inflationary effects of these could still come.

Indirect tax

Increases to duty on cigarettes and alcohol are expected - despite heavy lobbying for increases on beer tax to be ditched for the greater good of the UK economy.

VAT creates many problems.

In November the rate was cut to 15 per cent for 13 months - until January 1st 2010.

The effectiveness of the cut has been heavily questioned and may not be ever known. However, there are calls for the cut to be extended beyond the end of the year.

There are also suspicions the rate may even rise over 17.5 per cent in 2010.

However, the chancellor may well delay such decision until the pre-Budget report in the autumn.

Mr Darling also has the option of cutting VAT on certain services to five per cent.

In particular building work on homes as well as DIY equipment could see VAT dropped to five per cent - something the construction industry is demanding heavily as a way of aiding it through the property slump.

He could also cut VAT on domestic cleaning, restaurant bills and audio books among other services.

Pensions

Despite almost everyone in the pensions industry demanding the chancellor make no changes to pension law, the Budget could still see some changes.

Tax relief on pensions for higher rate taxpayers could be cut back, it is mooted, with even a gesture towards saying it is a cut to stop future Sir Fred Goodwins.

Green Budget

With the chancellor desperately looking for any good headlines to take from a dour Budget, he may choose to push the green agenda.

Plans for grants for electric cars have already been suggested - although paid from existing funds.

A scheme to push forward the motor industry though offering £2,000 grants for scrapping older more polluting cars for new models may also come.

He could also promote investment in green technologies or provide more incentives for those making home improvements to make properties energy efficient.

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