NIESR says recession is over as UK economy grew by 0.1% in 4th qtr

Friday, 13 January 2012 09:49

The UK economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to a first estimate from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

If the NIESR figures are correct it means that the UK is less likely to enter recession. Most analysts expected a contraction in the economy in the fourth quarter and this in tandem with the likely contraction of the economy in the first six months of 2012 was predicted to push the UK economy into a double-dip recession.

NIESR said the UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent after growth of 0.3 per cent was finalised for the third quarter. This means that the UK economy as a whole grew by one per cent in 2011, slightly less than half the growth seen in 2010 of 2.1 per cent.

NIESR concludes from its data that the recession, a period when the economy contracts for two successive quarters, is over, but that we remain in a depression, defined as a period when output is depressed below its previous peak.

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that UK industrial output, which accounts for 15 per cent of GDP, fell by 0.6 per cent in November, whilst manufacturing output which makes up slightly less of a percentage of GDP fell by 0.2 per cent in the same month.

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